In the monograph, the issues of calculating and forecasting the flow of the Chirchik River under the conditions of climate change are considered. In the study, changes in the hydrometeorological regime of the rivers of the Chirchik basin under climate change conditions were analyzed, the influence of climatic factors on the river flow was statistically evaluated, the flow indicators of the Chirchik River were calculated under the conditions of climate change, and methods for forecasting changes in the river flow were developed.
Also, in the work, special attention was paid to the features of the formation of the rivers of the Chirchik basin. This monograph is intended for hydrologists, hydrometeorologists, geographers, hydrotechnicians, soil scientists, as well as specialists, teachers and graduate students of higher educational institutions in the field of hydrometeorology. The book was written by the following authors:
Rakhmonov Komiljon Radjabovich, Dean of the Faculty of Hydrometerology of the National University of Uzbekistan.
Umirzokov Gulomjon Ongarboevich, associate professor of the Faculty of Hydrometerology of the National University of Uzbekistan.
Adenbaev Bakhtiyor Yembergenovich is the head of the department “Hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring” of the Faculty of Hydrometeorology of the National University of Uzbekistan.
Turgunov Daniyor Mannozjanovich, rector of the higher education organization “PERFECT UNIVERSITY”.
Ziyaev Rahmat Rahimovich, associate professor of the Department of Terrestrial Hydrology, Faculty of Hydrometerology, National University of Uzbekistan.
Rapiqov Barkamol Rustamjonovich, a teacher of the Department of Terrestrial Hydrology at the Faculty of Hydrometerology of the National University of Uzbekistan.
In the strategy “Uzbekistan 2030” “Saving water resources and environmental protection” is defined as one of the priority tasks. The subject of this monographic research work is Uzb-Ind-2021-89 of the scientific research work plan of the National University of Uzbekistan “Water shortage in arid and semi-arid river basins of Uzbekistan and India, and dams and climate to drought assessment of the impact of change” (2021-2023) was carried out within the framework of practical research projects.
The first chapter of the monograph is called “Changes in the hydrometeorological regime of rivers of the Chirchik basin under climate change.” In it, the distribution of river flow and meteorological factors in different periods throughout the year was studied, the influence of air temperature and atmospheric precipitation on the interannual change of river flow, and the variability of river flow were statistically evaluated.
In the second chapter of the research work, the main attention was focused on the issues of quantitative assessment of the influence of climatic factors on the flow of rivers. First, the connections between the flow of rivers and atmospheric precipitation were studied. In the next part of the work, the relationship of river flow with air temperatures and the combined effect of atmospheric precipitation and air temperature on the formation of river flow were statistically evaluated.
The third chapter of the work was devoted to the calculation and forecasting of the flow of the Chirchik River under the conditions of climate change. For this purpose, first, information was collected from the MED-SORDEX (SRU TS) climate data portal for the Chirchik River basin, the amount of gross evaporation from the Chirchik River basin was determined, and the change in the flow of the Chirchik River was forecast. The final part of the chapter focused on the assessment of hydrometeorological drought indicators in the Chirchik basin.
The final – fourth chapter of the monograph was focused on the issues of quantitative assessment of the formation of river flow in the Chirchik basin. In this chapter, the contribution of glaciers in the formation of the Chirchik river flow was quantitatively evaluated. Changes in the amount of sources of saturation were determined in the years of extreme water observed in the rivers. The last part of the chapter is devoted to the analysis of natural flow indicators determined by hydrological modeling in the Chirchik River.
The main purpose of this research work
to quantitatively assess the sources of the formation of the river flow of the Chirchik basin under the conditions of climate change, to calculate the main indicators of their flow, and to improve the methods of forecasting the seasonal flow of rivers and the river flow. Taking into account the above, the following tasks were determined and solved in this research work: Collecting, summarizing and systematizing hydrometeorological data for the Chirchik river basin; Quantitative assessment of changes in the hydrometeorological regime of the Chirchik River under climate change conditions; statistical assessment of the influence of climatic factors on the flow of rivers; improving the methods of calculating and forecasting the flow of rivers of the Chirchik basin under the conditions of climate change; Evaluation of meteorological drought characteristics in the Chirchik basin using different methods; Assessment of the contribution of glaciers in the formation of the Chirchik River flow; Hydrological modeling of the natural flow regime of Chirchik basin rivers; analysis of natural flow indicators determined by modeling.
The rivers of the Chirchik basin were selected as the research object of the work. Quantitative assessment and forecasting of the hydrometeorological drought occurring in the basin under the conditions of climate change is the subject of research.
The following was used as the main source of information in this research:
1. Data recorded under standard conditions at the hydrological post and meteorological stations located in the Chirchik basin;
2. The results of research conducted by the authors in the rivers of the Chirchik basin;
3. SPI, SSI, Run Theory and other indices describing meteorological and hydrological drought.
The main results obtained in the research work are as follows:
- Hydrometeorological data for the Chirchik River basin were collected and put into one system;
- Changes in the hydrometeorological regime of the Chirchik River were quantitatively assessed for the base and current climatic periods;
- The influence of climatic factors (atmospheric precipitation and air temperature) on river flow was statistically evaluated;
- Under the conditions of climate change, the main indicators of the flow of the Chirchik River were calculated and the methods of forecasting their seasonal flow were improved;
- Meteorological drought characteristics in the Chirchik basin were quantitatively evaluated using various methods;
- The contribution of glaciers in the formation of the Chirchik river flow was quantified and the water balance equation of the basin was created;
7. Hydrological modeling of the natural flow regime in the Chirchik River was carried out, and the natural flow indicators determined by modeling were analyzed.